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Guess the real numbers behind surveys and opinion polling, see how everyone else guessed, and get the source.

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For a typical opinion poll of about 1,000 people, what margin of error does that sample size usually produce?

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  • 1 opinion poll
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about 6%

By 2018, what share of people that pollsters called actually completed a phone survey?

Response rates for phone surveys had fallen dramatically, even though pollsters could still get accurate results from smaller samples.

Source: Pew Research Center (2018) pewresearch.org

about 10,000

To shrink a poll's margin of error down to about 1%, roughly how many people need to be surveyed?

Cutting a poll's margin of error by two-thirds takes a much bigger sample, which is why most polls settle for about 3% instead.

Source: Wikipedia, Opinion poll (2024) en.wikipedia.org

about 4%

When Singapore began using early 'sample count' results on election night, what margin of error did officials cite?

Singapore's election-night sample counts, drawn from partial ballots, are designed to give a fairly accurate early read.

Source: Wikipedia, Sampling (statistics) (2015) en.wikipedia.org

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Each question asks you to guess a real number about surveys and opinion polling. After you answer you see how everyone else guessed, then the real figure and where it comes from.

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Four stats and one opinion poll. A correct guess earns 100 points plus up to 50 for speed, with a combo bonus for answers in a row. The range next to the right answer earns 40. Opinion polls earn 25 for having your say, and nailing every stat adds 150.

Where do the numbers come from?

Every stat links to its source, such as government statistics agencies, research organizations and industry groups. Figures are checked against the source before they go live.

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